Impact on India, China

Donald Trump The upcoming Donald Trump Administration in the United States is like an unguided missile. Nobody can say for sure when and where it will explode and when it does explode who will be at the receiving end. However, prima facie one can say that the Trump administration will eventually be bad for India and good for China. Read on!
Trump will be an "inward-looking" President. He will be more of a "businessman President " and definitely not a "global policeman". This means that he will be concentrating more on America rather than the world. By extension, it means that Trump will be more focused on "America first", the catchphrase of Trump the Presidential campaigner, rather than the complicated web of the US foreign policy.
Trump will be having a deep focus on two major things – creating more job opportunities for Native Americans and on infrastructure projects within the US. Both will be essentially geared towards his major poll promise of making America great again.
He won't be much bothered about the traditional American foreign policy wherein the American foreign policy chess board is cluttered with red-marked foes like China and green-marked friends like Japan, Europe and Australia etc. He will implement his stated policies during his campaign in the fields of trade and visa regimes and will unabashedly implement protectionist trade policies.
The Trump administration may mean loss of jobs to Indians. He is likely to curtail heavily the H1B visas which will constrict job opportunities for Indians. Already, the Indian student community has taken the cue and America as the favourite destination of Indian students has taken a hit and Indian students are turning to safer environs provided by other developed countries like Canada, Australia and Singapore.
Besides, it may have a telling negative impact on India-US bilateral trade too because Trump is expected to implement protectionist trade policies. The talk of quintupling India- US trade to $500 billion is likely to remain a pipe dream only.

The Trump administration may mean loss of jobs to Indians. He is likely to curtail heavily the H1B visas which will constrict job opportunities for Indians.

Trump is perceived as "anti- Muslim" because of his public announcement that he loved "Hindus" using the word as a synonymous for India, but when it comes to actual implementation, India may be faced with a "between the cup and the lip" kind of situation.

He may be eventually wary of annoying Pakistan – and by extension China – by blatantly favouring India at the expense of Pakistan.

Trump is unlikely to deliver on India's pivotal strategic concern of a China-Pakistan axis. He will weigh the strategic pros and cons and India is unlikely to be foremost in his strategic game plans as has been the case with his predecessors.

However, for China, the upcoming Trump administration may mean something else.

Contrary to his anti-China rhetoric, Trump is unlikely to go hammer and tongs against China. He is an astute businessman and that's his USP. He may not eventually rock China's boat because that will keep him bogged down in non-priority areas.

His priority areas are "America first" and "making America great again". He can achieve this objective by keeping a China quiet. Last, but not the least, he may well strike a deal with China. He may tell China this "You be the boss in your backyard and let me be the boss in the rest of the world".

This will be a God-send for China and will obviously rattle America's traditional allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Trump's unpredictability will be the key. He may well turn the American foreign policy on its head and pursue a more pragmatic approach which does not embroil America in the role of a global policeman.

His focus will be inward rather than flexing American muscles globally. This goal can be achieved by striking a deal with China.

After all, most American presidents say something during campaign and do just the opposite once they are ensconced on the seat of power.