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Economic reforms
Trumpet of triumph hardly convincing !G.Srinivasan
India ended permit quota raj and grandly embarked on the path of liberalization twenty-five years ago. Yet, neither the economic policy measures nor all the hoopla over the triumph of reforms can hide the hard and harsh ground realities that are visible to the naked eye, says the author, in a cost –benefit analysis of economic reforms. In the bygone year India celebrated in a muted fashion the silver jubilee of the country's economic and trade policy reforms or what is broadly hailed as the liberalization of the domestic economy from the clutches of thelicense-permit regime of the post-Independent India for more than five decades! The ruling NDA did not make a song and dance about the 25th anniversary of the liberalization of the economy for the obvious reason that the original architect was its bête noire Congress Party! But it was not the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that did the reform, although Rajiv Gandhi as the Prime Minister succeeding his assassinated mother the formidable Indira Gandhi did make some baby steps on the reform front during his tenure between 1984-89 when he enjoyed more than absolute majority in Parliament. It was the silent but sagacious Narasimha Rao, who became an accidental Prime Minister in 1991, took the giant strides on the reform path backing his finance minister Dr.Manmohan Singh to the hilt in freeing the trammels of control and licences that had been the bane of the country's economic development annals. Even as India celebrated in a muted fashion the silver jubilee of its tryst with liberalization of the domestic economy from the clutches of licensepermit raj , the incontrovertible fact remains that public policies being framed for the people do not really serve them as they should under normal circumstances and efficient governance. The mantra of minimum government and maximum governance with which Narendra Modi garnered a relatively comfortable victory in the 2014 General Elections has not delivered its message loud and clear to a majority of the population. Rao, heading a minority government
albeit enjoying the tacit support of all
Opposition Parties, including the BJP,
parried off all impediments to his
straight and narrow path to lift the
Indian economy by forward- looking
economic and trade policy reforms. The
merit of this boldest move is that
succeeding governments, including the
incumbent NDA, have but little option
other than following the steps to bring in
fresh air to the stifled economic milieu
under which the stakeholders of the real
sectors of the economy had been
morbidly breathing.
Narasimha Rao
Consensus'; open trade, open capital
and reliance on the private sectoressentially
the same development
model that has been tried and proven
successful in most countries of Eastern
Asia". NO CLARITY YETManmohan Singh For India, which originally pursued the commanding heights of the economy with the State controland centralized planning to ensure even and balanced growth in a country of continental size and diversity, the reforms it embraced in the 1990s still did not lend any clarity to three basic and fundamental issues. They include a persistent ambivalence about property rights and the private sector, glaring deficiency in state capacity, particularly in delivering essential services and inefficient redistribution.
Shiv Pratap Shukla
This is notwithstanding the
introduction of rights-based entitlement
policies for the weaker and vulnerable
sections of society, National Food
Security Act and occasional bailout of
corporate firms having failed in areas
like steel, aviation and other vital
infrastructure industries through bridge
loans by banks or outright write-offs of
their heavy debts. If China could follow economic reforms for three decades and notch up double-digit growth with the chirpy consequences reflecting in the economic and social prosperity of its billion plus people and the monumental infrastructural expansion they brought in their trains, why should a country like ours deplorably lag behind in the provision of basic amenities to millions of its citizens with physical and social infrastructure continuing to remain a work in progress in a wobbly way? Informatively, gross non-performing assets of PSBs rose from Rs 6,41,057 crore during 2016-17 to Rs 6,89,806 crore in the first half of 2017-18. No wonder, while approving India's 2017 Financial System Stability Assessment, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) on December 21, 2017 in Washington cautioned that "a group of PSBs are highly vulnerable to further declines in asset quality and higher provisioning needs. Capital needs range from 0.75 per cent of GDP in the baseline to 1.5 per cent of GDP in the severe adverse scenario". It needs to be noted that the recent Finance Ministry's announcement ofRs 2.11 trillion recapitalization plans for all PSBs amounts to 1.3 per cent of GDP. RBI RED FLAGSIn its Financial Stability Report, released
at the end of 2017, the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) hoisted the red flag by noting
that "the overall risks to the banking sector
remained elevated due to asset quality
concerns" as a macro test carried out by it
signals that under the baseline scenario,
gross NPAs might rise from 10.2 per cent of
gross advances in September2017 to 10.8
per cent in March 2018 and further to 11.1
per cent by September2018. Montek Singh Ahluwalia This prompted former Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram to lament in a statement that "GDP growth in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18(est.) is 8.0, 7.1 and 6.5 per cent. These numbers prove there is a slowdown". The demonetization of high value notes peremptorily announced on November 8, 2016 and the shoddy implementation of the pan-India Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July 1, 2017 were partly ascribable to the growth slowdown in the deteriorating performance of the economy during the last two years. Palaniappan Chidambaram Though obsession with growth figures does not bode good as it puts under the carpet the widening inequalities and unequal distribution mechanism to partake of the growth benefits to the greatest number of people in a democracy, the incontrovertible fact remains that public policies being framed for the people do not really serve them as they should under normal circumstances and efficient governance. Xi Jinping The mantra of minimum government and maximum governance with which Narendra Modi garnered a relatively comfortable victory in the 2014 General Elections has not delivered its message loud and clear to a majority of the population who still find eking out existence a formidable challenge. CHINA MODEL
Zhang Jun
In China, things are decisively
changing. Though political liberty
remains a pipedream, economic
empowerment seems to be inching up
when the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping,
while addressing the 19th Party
Congress in November 2017, declared
that "because China can largely deliver
basic necessities to its people, the goal
now should be to improve their quality
of life". If China could follow economic reforms for three decades and notch up double-digit economic growth with the chirpy consequences reflecting in the economic and social prosperity of its billion plus people and the monumental One crucial segment that remains utterly bypassed by economic reform in India is the farm sector where rural stress and agrarian distress have become the dominant tropes of the times. The UPA government made the first blunder of loan waivers in the first decade of this century for farmers without addressing the structural stumblingblocs to sustainable farming. The present dispensation is no wiser in sticking to this fallacious remedy. infrastructural expansion they brought in
their trains, why should a country like ours
deplorably and dismally lag behind in the
provision of basic amenities to millions of
its citizens with physical and social
infrastructure continuing to remain a work
in progress in a wobbly way?
What all the economic and trade policy
reforms had accomplished other than
noticeable eyesores like scams and
shenanigans– whether they relate to
allocation of state resources such as coal,
spectrum or building infrastructure
projects through public-private
partnerships (PPP) where the private
parties not finding the going smooth after
the completion of the project with tolls and
other issues remaining unresolved or
getting contentious due to political
interference. FARM SECTOR BYPASSEDRaghuram G Rajan One crucial segment that remains utterly bypassed by the economic reform in India is the farm sector where rural stress and agrarian distress have become the dominant tropes of the times, particularly during the last few years. The UPA government made the first blunder of loan waivers in the first decade of this century for farmers without addressing the structural stumbling-blocs to sustainable farming. Arun Jaitley The present dispensation is no wiser in sticking to this fallacious remedy as it shakes the faith of the people in the banking system and puts paid to honor loan commitments. In fact, former RBI Governor and a distinguished economist of global repute, Dr. Raghuram G Rajan had railed against this practice by describing how it distorts credit discipline by elevating cost and making difficult any recovery of dues. Narendra Modi Even as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told the Lok Sabha on the last day of the winter session that "no financial assistance for loan waiver has been provided to States by the Union Government during the last three years and the current year", the fact remains that this odious practice started by the UPA has been revived by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the height of the polls in the Uttar Pradesh in 2017, followed by BJP states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and others like Punjab and Tamil Nadu.
Ashok Gulati
Eminent agronomist Ashok Gulati and
Siraj Hussain of ICRIER contend that in
the first four years of the Modigovernment,
agri-GDP is going to log an
average annual growth rate of two per
cent, which is well-nigh half of what was
achieved during the decade-long rule of
the UPA from 2004-2014. Siraj Hussain There is no dearth of suggestions to give a decisive push to the farm sector, provided there is a demonstrable political will to accord the importance this constituency deserves and demands. One recommendation made by the experts cited above relates to the need to ensure an effective monitoring and dovetailing of agri-trade and tariff policy with minimum support policy (MSP) through a sub-committee of the Union Cabinet to take a swift call. No wonder, the economic policy measures and all the hoopla over and trumpet of the triumph of reforms do not convince the hard and harsh ground realities that are visible to the naked eye if one roves around the length and breadth of this vast country. Off-on policy pertaining to farm goods
trade need to be shed in the interest of
long-term stability of the market and to
ensure remunerative returns to growers. The author is an outstanding economic expert. |