A silver lining in Sitharaman’s
short-cuts to revival
Malladi Rama Rao
Trappings of panic under
market and political
p r e s s u r e
notwithstanding, the
fourth mini Nirmala -
budget has a silver lining. The
corporate tax cut now on offer –
amongst the lowest in Asia - undid the JNU inspired muddled
Fabianism the April budget
inflicted on the nation; it offered
a good incentive to foreign firms
not to shy away from India and
‘gifted’ an additional saving of
₹ 37,000 cr to top 1,000 listed
firms. This is a booster dose for
job creation undoubtedly but it is
defies quantification with
question marks on the time frame
particularly. Near term will see
Sensex in pink of health to the
relief of Bhakt Bhajan Mandali.
Modi 2.0 should have hit the
road at galloping speed when
the first signs of recession
appeared. It did not. Instead it
played with three mini-budgets
dubbed as packages to front
load expenditure and comfort
investor sentiment. The
Reserve Bank (RBI) on its part
has come up with rate cuts and
pumped massive liquidity.
These measures were neither
here nor there. Naturally,
therefore, the growth rate has
sunk to a six-year low; the
official assertion that it is not a
bad show in a global
environment steeped in gloom
under the shadow of US- China
trade war had no takers.
The country needs
investments. These are not yet
in sight despite Mega Modi
shows overseas. There is no
blueprint for jobs despite Employment Minister
Gangwar’s assertion
“India’s problem is
not jobs but few
skilled personnel.”
The Minister has
since clarified that
his remark was
limited in context –
unemployability of
youth from North
Indian states. Well,
this clarification by
itself is a frank
admission of the
failure of Modi’s FiveYear- Old Mega Plan
for skilling India.
Tax bait
On Friday, Sept 20, Modi.2.0
turned to the ordinance route to
slash corporate taxes, with analysts
predicting that India is offering a
tempting bait for China based
foreign companies hit by the ChinaUS trade war. The main rate for
domestic firms henceforth will be
down to 22 per cent from 30 per
cent, Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman said. The tax rate for
new companies would be cut to
15 per cent from 25 per cent.
In essence, this is Rs. 1.45 trillion
revenue loss to the exchequer. It,
however, offers Rs 1.45-lakh crore
tax break to the Corporates to
entice them to make fresh
investment, and to boost Make in
India.
The Modi-tweeted tax breaks
clearly demonstrate that our
government is leaving no stone
unturned to “make India a better
place to do business and to make
India a $5 trillion economy.”
Prompt came Rahul Gandhi’s
tweet: “Aamazing what PM can do
for a stock market bump.”
The message is
clear. The government
which has been voted
in for a second fiveyear term is at sixes
and sevens. The
person in the hot seat
is Nirmala
S i t h a r a m a n .
Squirming with
unease, she has come
up with a two-fold
shortcut to economic
nirvana.
One is ‘loan melas’ in
400 districts, in what is
a return to the
Janardan Pujari days of
nightmares to
government bank
managers. For the
saffaronite, these are
not melas; these are
loan festivals with the
banks clearly told to
take along NBFCs and
advised not to treat
outstanding MSME
loans as NPAs for the
present.
Second plank is
Shopping Festival.
“We will hold an
annual mega shopping
festival in four cities by March
2020 to stimulate demand.” It
will follow the model of Dubai’s
annual shopping festival with a difference.
Unlike Dubai’s, which is
famous for heavy discounts on
popular brands across sectors, Sitharaman’s festival with
different themes in each of
the four selected cities will
focus on sectors like gems
and jewellery, yoga, tourism
and textiles and leather “to
showcase products that India
has to offer,” and “to give a
booster shot to exports of
micro, small and medium
enterprises.” We are told the
government expects a “mass on-boarding” of
artisans across
the country as a
result.
What a brilliant
idea, Madam, to
aid a pick-up in
economic growth
! “In spite of all
the worries... we
see a clear sign of
revival in the first
quarter of 2019-
20 and up to Julyend... revival
signs are very,
very consistent,”
the minister said
as her ministry
went to the town
with a booster dose of sorts for
two flagging sectors of the
economy- exports and
housing—in a bid to reverse
what the government concedes
as deepening downturn.
These are priority sector tag for
export credit and an overhaul of
tax refund schemes for exporters
(a new scheme, Remission of
Duties or Taxes on Export Product
to replace Merchandise Exports
from India Scheme that would
cost the
exchequer about
Rs 50,000 crore
per year) and
around Rs 20,000
crore corpus for
last-mile funding
of affordable
housing projects
(an estimated 3.5
lakh dwelling
units that have
almost become
Non-Performing
Assets).
Good talking
points, no doubt
like the recent
decision to
merge a few
more PSU banks.
But these
measures are unlikely to have a significant
impact on Indian export growth,
which responds more to global
demand, and on the housing
sector which is plagued by
demand slump as well.Moreover,
the realty market requires a
broad economic upturn to
recover, and the exports a
competitive edge.
Already, the
unemployment rate is at
a 45-year high of over
6 per cent . We are
primarily an agrarian
economy, which provides
livelihood to almost sixty
percent of the people but
agriculture is in bad
shape, and this has hit
rural consumption, which
is the summum bonum
for the FMCG sector.
No surprise, the main
opposition party, the Sonia-Rahul
Congress is unsparing in its
criticism. The party termed the
new measures as cosmetic, and
said the government is “clueless”
on the economy front.
“We expected the government
would take steps to resuscitate
the economy, increase
investments, create jobs, and
address issue of exports. But
Sitharamanji did not announce
any measure that would address
the current economic situation,”
said AICC spokesman Anand
Sharma, who had held the
Commerce portfolio in the UPA
saga, minutes after Sitaraman
concluded her presser. His
verdict: “The BJP and its ministers
lack a vision to revive the
economy.”
The Marxists are no less harsh
in their denouncement of
Modinomics. “The emphasis on
targeting private investment in the realty sector and the effort to
boost exports cannot succeed.
Global trade volumes are
shrinking and houses are not
being purchased because of sheer
lack of purchasing power among
the people. The Rs. 70,000 crore
worth of packages instead should
have been put to use in increasing
public investment and paying the
arrears of the MNREGA which
would have boosted the
purchasing power in rural India”, the CPI(M) politburo said.
From all accounts,
the Modi government
sees no magic wand
that can reverse the
“ d a n g e r o u s l y
protracted” slowdown
that is as much
“cyclical” as
“structural” in nature.
And by all means the
problem can’t be fixed
with knee-jerk
solutions. But if this
situation is not
reversed, job creation,
which the country’s
youth are looking for
will be the worst hit.
Already, the
unemployment rate is
at a 45-year high of over
6 per cent. We are primarily an
agrarian economy, which
provides livelihood to almost
sixty percent of the people but
agriculture is in bad shape, and
this has hit rural consumption,
which is the summum bonum
for the FMCG sector.
The urban consumption scene
is no better with steep fall in
corporate investments under
Modi raj. Massive urban
migration is swelling the ranks of jobless youth in slums.
Unemployment rate reached 34
per cent among the 20-24-yearolds in the first quarter of 2019 —
it was 37.9 per cent among the
urban lot, says CMIE data.
According to the Economic
Survey 2018-19, and various other
estimates,the overall size of
working age population will keep
growing till at least 2041 with the
annual increase at around 9.7
million.
The North Block and the Mint
Street have diagnosed correctly
that lack of credit is the key
culprit. And have loosened the
purse strings of public sector
banks. Also offered a bail out of
sorts for the NBFCs, which are
the shadow bankers “that are
choked,” according to several
economists.
There is still no clear road
map for public and private
investment which will
stimulate key job intensive
sectors like textiles, auto, and
electronics. Instead we find the
government on the horns of a
dilemma on whether to
concede the auto sector’s
demand for a stimulus package
with a steep GST cut.
Finance Minister Sitharaman
has not helped her case by
blaming the Ola and Uber for the
crash in auto sales. “Millennials
prefer using Ola and Uber to
buying a vehicle,” she said in an
off-the cuff remark.
As the Twittereti point out
India is going to be the home of
millennials, with the youngest
population for the next 25-30
years. “Millennial mind-sets will
drive the world going ahead.
Blaming them is bad, even more
so from GOI.”
Undoubtedly, the Indian auto
industry is in a bad shape with
sales declining by as much as 30
per cent. This led to pink slips
to an estimated 3, 50,000
workers since April last. A
Reuters report says that at least five companies have
recently cut or plan to cut
hundreds of jobs, mainly from
their temporary labour force.
Will a GST cut assuming that
the states will be persuaded to
forgo their revenue help boost
car sales?
R C Bhargava
Industry veteran, R C Bhargava
is frank enough to concede that
temporary GST cut will not help.
He admits two reasons for car
industry’s bad days. One cars
have become expensive and
therefore unaffordable. Two the
sector’s penchant for obscene
salaries to the top management.
Arvind Panagariya
Columbia University
Professor, Arvind Panagariya,
who headed the Niti Ayog in its
formative days is also against
any new deal to the auto
industry. “Its claims are
entirely not credible,” he wrote
in an op-ed recently while on
what must be done for
economy, and making a case
for moderate inflation at rates
such as 5-6 per cent.
What India needs is not
luxury car sales. Not more Ubers and Olas. But good public
transport system. Introduction
of e- buses is a good beginning.
India urgently needs quality
growth, not merely high growth
rate. As the French expert on
India, Prof Christophe Jaffrelot
insists, skilling India will help
address the employment crisis,
which Minister Gangwar has
admitted exists today. More
government spending on
education and training will
address the issue.
India cannot rest on the
present ranking (77th place) on
World Bank’s Doing Business
2019 report. What good such a
ranking is when sector after
sector remains in the underperforming zone. This calls for
reforms at the local level not
only at the state but at the
municipality level which is the
real cutting edge of the
economy beset with growth
pangs. This is what the
economists term as micro
reforms.
Political will is the demand of
the day.Not headline hunting, through packages, tax raids and
money laundering arrests
through mid-night drama. If
the action starts now the 2019-
20 fiscal may end on some
happy note. Hopefully!
Urgent steps
- Thrust on rural jobs
- Pay MNREGA arrears, boost rural purchasing power
- Spending on Skill Training
- Micro reforms for quality growth
- Focused stimulus packages
- No Dubai style marketing festivals
- Rest for CBI from Vendetta Politics
- Fiscal discipline
- No headline hunting
Manmohan critique
Main reasons for the current slowdown are demonetization in 2016 and faulty implementation of goods and
services tax, (GST), said economist Manmohan Singh, who as Finance Minister in the Rao government, opened up the
economy, and as Prime Minister of UPA 1 and 2 steered the country to high growth rate.
“If this situation is not reversed, then the worst thing could happen to the employment situation. If income
growth slows down month after month, quarter after quarter, then the scope of creating more jobs will
seriously be affected,”he said in an interview to a financial daily in early September. His advice: The Modi
government must come out “of its habit of headline management,”and take urgent steps to fix the economy.
Marxist lament
“Instead of announcing a big increase in public investment to build our much-needed infrastructure, at the same, generate
employment and thereby boost domestic demand, the Finance Minister has once again announced measures that in the first place ,
have caused this economic slowdown bordering on recession.The Polit- Bureau calls upon the people to rise in protest against these
policies that only favour the maximization of profits at the expense of growing misery for the people” : CPI (M) in a statement.
Gadkari’s mega plan
After his master plan to make roads safe with hefty fines on errant drivers, the only ‘working’ Minister in the
Narendra Modi government, Nitin Gadkari has come up with a mega plan to woo investors. “We will monetise
the highways with high-traffic volumes”, he said.
The National Highways Authority of India, (NHAI), will select key highways in bunches of three – four and
offer them to mobilise resources through capital markets. All this work will be carried out by an investment trust
which will be set up as a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
“The road stretches with the potential for higher traffic will be set aside for the InvIT, because we want to attract more investors
and hence, will enlist more lucrative projects under it,” said Gadkari donning a thinking cap.
The Union government is expected to launch the first InvIT by December year.
No fiscal space
You (Finance Minister) have already announced a slew of measures front-load expenditures and comfort investor sentiment.
A lot of people must be advising you that if there was ever a time to open the money spigots, now is it. My unsolicited advice to
you is that don’t succumb to the temptation to offer a fiscal stimulus.You simply don’t have the fiscal space.
-Duvvuri Subbarao, former RBI governor in an open letter to Nirmala Sitaraman.
Boosting rural demand
Lose-monetary policy alone cannot arrest the deepening slump, instead government must take demand-boosting measures,
especially in rural areas, by front-loading expenditure primarily through the national rural employment scheme, Mgnrega and PMKisan, a State Bank Research report says.
The PM-Kisan portal shows the number of beneficiaries under the scheme is only 6.89 crore against the target of 14.6 crore due to
slow validation in farmer data. This has to be speeded up to boost rural demand. Under Mgnrega, against total release from the
Centre of Rs 45,903 crore (till September 13), total spend is around 73 per cent only or Rs 33,420 crore, the report adds.