Issue :   
January 2017 Edition of Power Politics is updated.  Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       January 2017 Edition of Power Politics is updated.   Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       
Issue:January' 2017

FRANKLY SPEAKING

It's poor governance !

People caught in Modi's shabdjaal

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has certainly shaken up the country, if not the system, by his daredevil step on d e m o n e t i s a t i o n . Whether his magical wand would help to erase 70 years of the parallel system of black money and corruption and bring some sunshine in the lives of povertystricken people remains to be seen.

The people do wish to see a corruption-free India. But doubts remain whether monkey tricks on demonetisation by the PM, his clueless team, poor RBI and banking network and

confused follow-up action can ensure people's freedom from corruption and black money. The whole exercise looks more of a drama in the name of nationalism rather than a wellcoordinated effort to help the poor.

Corruption is very much there in the system. Only its styles and patterns have changed. So, the Prime Minister ought to have, first of all, reformed the administrative and financial sectors before taking a plunge into complex and unknown areas of rural and urban India.
Mere rhetoric on Digital India without adequate preparations on the ground cannot give the desired results. Just look at some harsh facts. First, 600 million people still have no bank accounts. Second, roughly only 25 per cent of Indians have a smartphone. Third, internet reach is still awfully poor in the absense of regular power supply in rural and urban areas.
Even otherwise, the Modi establishment's sudden zeal for a cashless society is simply baffling. Does it realise serious implications of such a move on the people's psyche and their freedom from official preying eyes into privacy, personal and family life

Bribing today has become a way of life. And corruption and corrupt practices are systematized. Already, a sub-parallel juggaad system in corrupt practices has come up at all levels to overcome the problems faced by vested interests !

The world's democratic countries are mostly very much alive to their citizens' sensitivities on privacy and freedom from governmental interference in personal matters. Take, for example, in Germany nearly 80 per cent of transactions reportedly take place in cash. In the US 45 per cent transactions are carried out in cash. This is despite the fact that these countries have highly advanced banking and technological infrastructure -- the two critical areas where India is lagging far behind.
Still, the Prime Minister talks big on matters beyond his control while ordinary citizens continue to suffer in chasing their own money from banks and ATMs. Herein lies the tragedy of the Prime Minister. By his poor homework, he gives issues and talking points to the Opposition parties both within Parliament and outside.
What is equally regrettable is the disruption of Parliament by the Opposition MPs over demonetisation. President Pranab Mukherjee has rightly told them, "For God's sake, do your job. You are meant to transact business in Parliament." He observed : "Disruption is totally unacceptable

"India's several five-year plans could be financed by the huge money that the Indians, not NRIs, had illegally deposited in foreign banks."

in the Parliamentary system. People send representatives to speak and not to sit on dharna and not to create any trouble on the floor."

Narendra Modi's intentions may be honourable. He wishes to take India on to a higher trajectory of development and growth. Going by his track record during two and a half years of his prime ministership, I think he probably wishes to

Poor RBI homework and equally poor banking network ! Americanise India and make its urban face glitter like New York skyscrapers
He may not have spelt it out publicly, but his dream project of 100 smart cities, proposed rejuvenation of 500 towns, passionate pleas for Digital India and cashless society show the direction of his mind. His government has cleared a total Central outlay of Rs 98,000 crore for smart cities.

Nothing wrong with such futuristic concepts. My regret is that he does not fully understand the country's complex ground realities. The bulk of India lives in villages and their profile changes every 20 or so districts. He has, therefore, no clear idea about their pangs of pain.

In formulating his demonetisation scheme, his trusted political and bureaucracy team failed to take into account precarious condition of the rural economy which mainly depends on cash transactions in the absence of well-knit banking and digital network. Certain curbs on cooperative banking operations only made things worse for farmers in the thick of growing winter crops.

Narendra Modi dreams big and thinks big. His grand ideas of Digital India. Smart cities, cashless society etc. may have a pride of place in tomorrow's India. However, my point is : why doesn't he think of Smart Villages as well on a priority, where lakhs of cottages still go without power, potable drinking water, good schools and viable health care units ?

The Prime Minister must have a close look at the grim picture of our villages, state of agriculture and levels of deprivation among our tribals and rural people. India as much belongs to them as to privileged lots in cities. He has to first think and work for poor villagers and tribals who flock to cities in search of jobs and add to the number of slums.

Rural India needs massive investment for all-round growth. Will PM Modi's demonetisation help Village India in this direction and help remove poverty ? There may be some ray of hope. The latest changes proposed in taxation laws to mop up black money provides for the Prime Minister's welfare scheme for the poor under which the money collected will be utilized for irrigation, housing, construction of toilets, infrastructure, primary education, primary health, livelihood. This is a welcome initiative, but we have to see action on the ground.

Meanwhile, has the Prime Minister given any thought to tremendous loss of jobs in the informal sector and terrible slide-down in the economic growth and fall in exports ?

I strongly feel that the demonetisation plan should have been first tested on the touchstone of the smallest unit on the ground. The Prime Minister's team failed to do so.

Come 2017. We shall get a fair idea of the direction the country is heading to keeping in view the forthcoming elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

There were probably a number of critical political, economic and security calculations behind PM Modi's dramatic demonetisation move. One major motivating factor was intelligence input that revealed Islamabad's latest "proxy war" to hit India's financial market. Pakistan's idea was to inject a massive dose of fake currency in the Indian market which could have a very serious economic and financial implications for the country's development plans, apart from widening its terrorism reach.

As it is, Pakistan plays with fake currency to keep its proxy war going in Kashmir. The country has already paid a heavy price on this count

Corruption/black money is one of the biggest threats to our country. It has reportedly grown to the extent of 25-30 per cent of the GDP. This amounts to Rs 30 to 50 lakh crore

Bribing today has become a way of life. And corruption and corrupt practices are systematized. Already, a subparallel juggaad system in corrupt practices has come up at all levels to overcome the problems faced by vested interests !
Mere demonetisation cannot meet the people's hope for a corruption-free India. This calls for cleansing of the existing system. Equally critical is the task of minimizing the influence of black money in public life by putting in place a viable system of transparency and accountability.

Too much of red-tapism tends of become a breeding ground for corruption. We have not done much to improve the system which does have today two sets of rules— one for the rich and influencewieldes and the other for the poor

The problem here is the increasing crimalisation of the system with loopholes in the electoral and related laws of the land which enables criminals to thrive and fight elections and acquire respectability in public life, legistative houses included.

Loose ends of the system apart, political waywardness, too, has contributed to the black money economy. Political funding is the singlemost important generator of illegal money. The rest is taken by real estate developers, neoindustrialists, film stars, smugglers, Pak-sponsorsed terrorists, speculators and operators. There are numerous hawala channels which resourceful persons use for depositing their ill-gotten wealth in banks in tax havens of Switzerland and 30 other tax havens overseas.

The Prime Minister had promised to tackle this black money problem over two and a half years ago. But nothing much has been achieved on the front of these tax havens. This reminds me of Swaraj Paul's words conveyed to me during the Commonwealth Conference at Edinburgh in October 1997. The ace India -born entrepreneur told me that his study suggested that "India's several five-year plans could be financed by the huge money that the Indians, not NRIs, had illegally deposited in foreign banks." Herein lies the real challenge on the black money front, Mr PM.

We know exactly what is what and who is what in India's burgeoning rich club of unscrupulous businessmen, vulnerable sets of politicians belonging to all parties and "Yes Ministers" brand of bureaucrats, underworld operators, drug lords, smugglers etc. The varied ruling establishments have tended to overlook the matter for reasons which can be easily guessed rather than deliberated upon for reasons of safety first.
Reversing this corruption prone trend will not be easy for Prime Minister Modi. The task is of gigantic magnitude. Today, the entire issue is caught in a war of words between the ruling establishment and the Opposition parties under the cover of demonetisation and people's sufferings.

"In our age, there is no such thing as keeping out of politics", George Orwell said. All issues get mixed in politics in our country, with leaders of various shades and colours misleading the public as naturally as cattlefish squints ink. No wonder, the impact of inflated rhetoric, new promises and ideological woofing is both intriguing and puzzling to a transitional society which is not quite sure of itself.

The sole option for the public right now is to take the "transition" seriously without waiting for something dramatic to happen
Going by his rhetoric and promises, Prime Minister Modi gives the impression that he has taken the corruption cum black money cum poverty-ridden transition of India seriously. But the increasing number of people today are not quite sure whether, like his predecessors. Narendra Modi, too, is taking them for a ride in the name of nationalism and creating a corruption-free India.We keep our fingers crossed. There are wheels within wheels in PM Modi's system and we cannot be sure which wheel is working for whom and for whose benefit in India's rich men's club

Come 2017. We shall get a fair idea of the direction the country is heading to keeping in view the forthcoming elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand. The BJP leadership, meanwhile, derives some satisfaction from its suceess in the Chandigarh municipal elections, winning 20 seats in the 26-member civic body. Its real test, however, lies ahead in the forthcoming Assembly elections in the five states.