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January 2017 Edition of Power Politics is updated.  Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       January 2017 Edition of Power Politics is updated.   Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       
Issue:January' 2017

TAMIL NADU POLITICS

Testing times for Sasikala

Santosh Kumar

Can Sasikala Natarajan fit into the large shoes of J Jayalalithaa? This is the question puzzling Tamil Nadu in particular and the nation in general ever since the demise of their 'Amma' on that fateful Monday night on December 5.

Knowing the Tamil psyche, not many doubt the coronation, as the next queen of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazahagam, of the one and only person Jayalalithaa had seemingly trusted in her lifetime. The transition from 'Amma' to 'Chinnamma' (as Sasikala is being referred to now after the death of Jayalalithaa) may be smooth, but the big question is whether it will ensure the survival of the Dravidian party beyond the next election.

Many may ask why even till the next election. Those who like to draw parallels to the time of Jayalalithaa's mentor MG Ramachandran's death in 1987 will not be able to go beyond the fact that Sasikala was very close to 'Amma' and that she was standing next to her right through even as she lay in state at the Rajaji Hall in Chennai.

The comparison must end there. In 1987 December Jayalalithaa was unceremoniously pushed out of the gun carriage carrying her soul-mate's body at the very same Rajaji Hall complex. By that time, however, Jayalalithaa had cut her teeth in politics having been in charge of the party's publicity wing and was a sitting Rajya Sabha MP.

Sasikala Natarajan And by that time MGR by his actions had given enough indications that she was his rightful successor. They were the most glamorous love birds ever seen on Tamil cinema having acted together in not less than 28 blockbuster films. Beyond the memorable love scenes and hit songs most of those MGR starrers always conveyed a social message: Justice for the oppressed and the downtrodden.
She was not only MGR's heroine, but also the darling of the toiling masses. In short, at the time of MGR's death Jayalalithaa had an identity of her own, on and beyond the silver screen.
Sadly in today's Tamil Nadu, Sasikala is nothing other than the 'shadow' of the departed leader. Sad simply because lack of charisma will be the bane of AIADMK, for its existence of over four decades has hinged on the personality of two very charismatic, larger than life individuals.
The AIADMK, which was launched on 17 October 1972 as a breakaway faction of the Karunanidhi-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, has come a long way. By 2016 Jayalalithaa had successfully steered the party beyond the backwaters of the Bay of Bengal to the national mainstream. Today the party has 39 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 13 in the Rajya Sabha, the third largest in Parliament.
Jayalalithaa in her lifetime did not hide her ambition to be a national player. All national party leaders made a beeline to Veda Nilayam, her Poes Garden residence, for a one-on-one darshan. Some she kept waiting for hours without giving an audience. She had the audacity to do such things as she lived on her own terms, choosing and discarding allies, whether national or regional parties, at the drop of a hat
Her MPs cited 'Amma' every time they addressed Parliament. Even though they were the butt of jokes, all of them carried her photograph with them. Irrespective of their age they prostrated in front of her in full public view. Herself a Brahmin, ironically she could elicit such respect within a party which was formed to fight against Brahminical intolerance towards lower castes.
Some said it was not respect, but sheer subservience towards a 'benevolent dictator'. Perhaps she was both, generous and autocratic. No leader was allowed to grow in stature. Hence she left no one in particular as her successor.
Sasikala, nine years her junior, had an uneventful childhood and adolescence in a village called Mannargudi in Thiruvarur district, about 310 km from Chennai. But everything in her life changed with her marriage to Natarajan, a Public Relations Officer with the MGR government, and the subsequent shift to Chennai.
She opened a video parlour. It was by videographing Jayalalithaa's political meetings that Sasikala grew close to her. By 1991 when Jayalalithaa came to power for the first time, Sasikala had become a permanent fixture at the chief minister's house. Their bond and relationship remain as enigmatic as Jayalalithaa and Sasikala themselves

O Panneerselvam But party followers saw the intimacy between the two and took a liking to Sasikala, though there were ups and down in the relationship. Twice, in 1996 and 2011, Jayalalithaa had thrown Sasikala out of her house as well as the party. On each occasion they were back together in no time.
Though Sasikala has never ever spoken to the press or ever opened up to anyone, she has the confidence of the present chief minister O Panneerselvam. Two persons, who controlled the administration in Jayalalithaa's absence, special adviser to the government Sheila Balakrishnan and Chief Secretary Rammohan Rao, are known to take orders from Sasikala.

Many senior leaders, at least for the time being, have urged her to take over the reins of the party. Sasikala's biggest drawback will be lack of charisma and proven ability in politics
With the Congress and the BJP trying to capitalise on 'Amma's' absence, Sasikala as general secretary or chief minister will soon have to deal with the hawks from Delhi who have already started descending on Chennai.
The BJP is definitely making strident, calculated moves. Prime Minister Narendra Modi flew down to Chennai not just for paying his last respects to the departed leader. By his gesture of patting Sasiskala on the head and speaking to her husband, he was definitely conveying a signal.

Munisamy Thambidurai Gaining the support of the 13 Rajya Sabha MPs to overcome Opposition resistance to his Machiavellian moves in the Upper House is no doubt uppermost in his mind. His Man Friday, Union minister Venkaiah Naidu had apparently played a big role in swearing in Panneerselvam and company at midnight to ensure continuity in governance before making Jayalalithaa's death public. There were rumours that he had even tried to make Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha, senior AIADMK leader Thambidurai as chief minister, a move apparently scuttled by Sasikala.

It will be interesting to watch how Panneerselvam continues with the avowed policies of populism and social democracy which 'Amma' propagated through her various welfare schemes.

However hard they may try, the BJP is not likely to find any fertile ground in Tamil Nadu's Dravidian politics for the lotus to bloom, let alone take roots. What Modi must be aiming is to garner Sasikala's support till the time of the Presidential election due next year and then decide on the disproportionate asset cases pending against Jayalalithaa, of which Sasikala is a party.

Rahul Gandhi Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, of course, is seeing some ray of hope to revive the party after five decades in the wilderness by cosying up to Sasikala. Young Gandhi had already visited Chennai twice and is making the right noises, crooning about Jayalalithaa's warm relationship with his slain father Rajiv Gandhi.
In the present circumstances, despite his failing health, M Karnanidhi's DMK stands to gain. He has been making attempts to reunify the divided family by bringing estranged elder son Alagiri back to the fold. Heir apparent MK Stalin is all set to become party president. Jayalaltihaa had done much of the groundwork for the DMK by decimating all other Dravidian parties in the last Assembly election. Now it is for Stalin to rise to the occasion and try to fill in the vacuum
It will be interesting to watch how Panneerselvam continues with the avowed policies of populism and social democracy which 'Amma' propagated through her various welfare schemes. Public memory tends to be short. To keep 'Amma' alive even in death the party will have to take those initiatives further ahead.
Just by bowing before 'Chinnamma' will not work for long. Sasikala on her part will have to break her silence and stop operating through her coterie which is slowly gaining notoriety as 'Mannargudi Mafia'. Testing times are ahead not for AIADMK alone, but the entire Dravidian movement which has controlled the destiny of over 78 million Tamils for more than half a century.